Aged Care Workforce Planning: A 2026 Guide for Australian Providers

Why aged care workforce planning is no longer optional

Three forces have rewired residential aged care workforce planning since 2023: the AN-ACC funding model, the 215 care minute / 44 RN minute target, and the 24/7 RN-on-site requirement. Add 30%+ turnover and 70% workforce-cost ratios, and the difference between a viable home and a loss-making one is increasingly workforce design, not occupancy.

Bottom line: If you're still planning aged care workforce annually with a flat 0.8 FTE-per-bed assumption, you are leaving 6-figure savings on the table — and risking compliance failure.

The new arithmetic: 215 / 44

The sector-wide target is 215 minutes of direct care per resident per day, of which 44 minutes must be delivered by a Registered Nurse. The target is averaged across the home and weighted by AN-ACC class — so a higher-acuity home needs more.

For a 100-bed home running an average AN-ACC class around the middle of the distribution, this translates to roughly:

• 96–100 FTE total clinical + care staff
• ~18 FTE RNs (including 24/7 cover)
• ~12 FTE ENs
• ~66 FTE PCW/AINs
• Plus Care Manager / NUM, lifestyle, catering, cleaning, admin

Turnover is the silent budget killer

Aged care RN turnover sits at 28–34% and PCW/AIN turnover at 38–45% (AIHW + provider composite, 2024–25). Most of that exit happens inside the first 12 months — and almost all of it is preventable through better onboarding.

The first 90 days carry more risk than the next four years combined. That's where onboarding investment pays back fastest.

Skill-mix: not just a cost lever

Skill-mix decisions are easy to make in spreadsheets and painful to live with on a Sunday afternoon. The sustainable skill-mix to hit 215/44 sits around:

• 18% RN
• 12% EN
• 70% PCW/AIN

Going lighter on RN/EN saves money on paper but punishes your roster — RNs end up carrying medication rounds, falls assessments and family conversations that should have been spread. That's where unplanned overtime and agency reliance creep in.

Agency: cap it or lose to it

Benchmark agency spend at $1.4k–$2.2k per bed per year. High-performing providers run under $900 per bed; struggling ones can exceed $4k. A simple rule of thumb: every agency shift over budget is a permanent retention investment you didn't make.

The fix is rarely dramatic — it's:

1. A 6-week roster horizon (not 2 weeks).
2. NUMs empowered to flex hours without escalating every change.
3. A casual / part-time pool of 8–12 named relief staff per 100 beds.
4. A cap (e.g. 12% of nursing hours) with NUM-only override.

Pay: the Fair Work decision changed the floor

The Fair Work Commission's Aged Care Work Value Case lifted award rates by 15% in 2022 and an additional 23% in stages from 2024. That is the floor. To genuinely compete with acute, indicative 2026 bands:

• RN in aged care: $82k–$96k base
• CNS: $98k–$112k
• NUM / Care Manager: $118k–$138k
• PCW/AIN (Cert III): $52k–$62k base
• EN: $72k–$84k

Aged care RNs were running $8–12k behind acute pre-2024. Most providers have now closed that to within $4–6k. The ones at $3k or less are seeing dramatically improved applicant flow.

A practical 6-month workforce plan

Aged care workforce planning works on a 6-month cycle, not 12. Acuity shifts (a wave of admissions, a complex resident, a respite spike) move your care minute requirements faster than annual budgets can keep up.

Each cycle:

1. Re-baseline AN-ACC class mix. Forecast 6 months out.
2. Recalculate FTE need by skill-mix against the 215/44 target plus your acuity loading.
3. Compare to current roster. Identify shortage by discipline.
4. Build a recruitment plan with timing — RN searches take 6–10 weeks, PCW 3–5.
5. Set agency cap for the period.
6. Lock retention actions: stay interviews, onboarding cohort design, leave plans.

Providers running this rhythm consistently report ~$3.2k per-bed lower agency spend versus peers planning annually.

What good looks like on a single site

A 100-bed home running well in 2026 typically shows:

• Care minutes: 218–225 actual vs 215 target
• RN minutes: 46–50 vs 44 target
• 12-month all-staff attrition: under 22%
• Agency spend: under $1.4k per bed
• NUM tenure: 3+ years
• Open vacancies: under 4% of FTE
• Time-to-fill RN: under 45 days

If you're outside two of those, workforce planning is your biggest 2026 priority.

Closing thought

Aged care has shifted from a compliance-led workforce model to a design-led one. The providers thriving aren't the biggest payers — they're the ones treating 215/44 as a planning constraint, not a reporting metric, and rebuilding their roster, onboarding and skill-mix around it.